Week 11.A reminder: S&P+ is intended to be predictive and forward looking.Good predictive ratings are not rsum ratings Youth Customized Atlanta Falcons Jerseys , and they don’t give you bonus points for wins and losses. They simply compare expected output to actual output and adjust accordingly. That’s how a given team can win but plummet or lose and move up.Through 11 weeks, the S&P+ rankings are performing well, hitting 54 percent against the spread and 52 percent on the over/under point totals for the year.As you would hope, the absolute error — the average size of miss between projection and reality — has settled into a healthy area as well. Week 11 was S&P+’s best week yet in that regard.If you’re interested in a decent rsum ranking of sorts, I encourage you to visit this post on strength of schedule. I created a Resume S&P+ ranking and will be updating it on Mondays throughout the rest of the season.Below, however, are the predictive ratings, the actual S&P+.(You can find full unit rankings, plus a yearly archive, at Football Outsiders. The offense and defense pages are updated by Monday at the latest.)2018 S&P+ rankings after 11 weeksTeamRec.S&P+ RatingS&P+ RankLast WkChangeTeamRec.S&P+ RatingS&P+ RankLast WkChangeHello, GeorgiaIt has felt inevitable in recent weeks, but the “Alabama and Clemson separate themselves from everyone else” narrative that is quickly defining the 2018 season is a pretty new thing. Among other things, Georgia was part of that dominant class until about a month ago.Kirby Smart’s Dawgs fell from third to sixth in S&P+ following their 36-16 loss at LSU on October 13 — not a horrible drop, but enough to fall behind not only Bama and rising Clemson, but also Oklahoma and Michigan.Since the LSU loss, however, they’ve beaten Florida (currently 22nd in S&P+) by 17, Kentucky(top-30 at the time) by 17, and now Auburn (currently 20th) by 17. They are keeping strong teams at arm’s length, and they have been rewarded by a return to No. 3 in this week’s rankings.The Dawgs’ run game is brilliant (outside of the red zone, at least), and while the defense is a little less efficient than it was last year, no one makes big plays on the Dawgs. Granted, UGA is still closer to Michigan and Oklahoma than Clemson. But consider this a reminder that Alabama’s path to the College Football Playoff is not bump-free ... and, perhaps more importantly, that Michigan’s spot in the current CFP top four is not guaranteed.The week’s top movers (good)Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY SportsMinnesota (up 23 spots, from 76th to 53rd)Syracuse (up 19 spots, from 58th to 39th)Tennessee (up 12 spots www.falconsauthorizedshops.com , from 82nd to 70th)Florida International (up 11 spots, from 97th to 86th)Nevada (up 11 spots, from 84th to 73rd)Memphis (up 11 spots, from 39th to 28th)Maryland (up 10 spots, from 65th to 55th)Stanford (up 10 spots, from 35th to 25th)Air Force (up nine spots, from 89th to 80th)Pitt (up nine spots, from 71st to 62nd)Good god, Minnesota. Here’s what I wrote last week, when Minnesota pulled off the week’s biggest drop.Make that seven times rising or falling by at least 10 spots. Don’t bet on Minnesota this year, kids.Top movers (bad)Ben Queen-USA TODAY SportsTCU (down 19 spots, from 48th to 67th)Purdue (down 15 spots, from 25th to 40th)Ole Miss (down 14 spots, from 46th to 60th)Virginia Tech (down 14 spots, from 61st to 75th)Florida State (down 12 spots, from 75th to 87th)Kentucky (down 11 spots, from 37th to 48th)Toledo (down 10 spots, from 62nd to 72nd)Baylor (down 10 spots, from 81st to 91st)Four teams down nine spotsTCU was projected 22nd in the preseason and rose to 16th in week two. They were 25th by week four, 46th by week eight, and now, following a humbling 47-10 loss to WVU, they have fallen into the bottom half of FBS.FBS conferences, ranked by average S&P+ rating:SEC (plus-10.0 adjusted points per game, down 0.3 points)Big Ten (plus-5.6, same)Big 12 (plus-5.4, down 0.4)Pac-12 (plus-4.2, up 0.2)ACC (plus-3.8 Womens Jake Matthews Jersey , down 0.1)AAC (minus-0.4, up 0.3)Mountain West (minus-2.1, up 0.1)Sun Belt (minus-4.4, up 0.3)Conference USA (minus-5.9, up 0.5)MAC (minus-6.7, down 0.4)Changes from last week: the Big Ten has eked by the Big 12 for the No. 2 spot, and the MAC has landed with a thud in the bottom spot despite having six teams ranked in the top 75. (The main reason: four teams in the bottom 14.)Another reminder: I have made a few philosophical changes in this year’s S&P+ rankings. When I get the chance (so, maybe in the offseason), I will update previous years of S&P+ rankings to reflect these formula changes, too.I changed the garbage time definition. S&P+ stops counting the major stats once the game has entered garbage time. Previously, that was when a game ceased to be within 27 points in the first quarter, 24 in the second, 21 in the third, and 16 in the fourth. Now I have expanded it: garbage time adjustments don’t begin until a game is outside of 43 points in the first quarter, 37 in the second, 27 in the third, and 21 in the fourth. That change came because of a piece I wrote about game states at Football Study Hall.Preseason projections will remain in the formulas all season. Fans hate this — it’s the biggest complaint I’ve heard regarding ESPN’s FPI formulas. Instinctively, I hate it, too. But here’s the thing: it makes projections more accurate. Our sample size for determining quality in a given season is tiny, and incorporating projection factors found in the preseason rankings decreases the overall error in projections. So I’m doing it.To counteract this conservative change, I’m also making S&P+ more reactive to results, especially early in the season. If I’m admitting that S&P+ needs previous-year performances to make it better, I’m also going to admit that S&P+ doesn’t know everything it needs to early in a season, and it’s going to react a bit more to actual results.Basically, I’ve added a step to the the rankings process: after the rankings are determined, I go back and project previous games based on those ratings, and I adjust the ratings based on how much the ratings fit (or don’t fit) those results.The adjustment isn’t enormous, and it diminishes dramatically as the season unfolds.Testing this process for past seasons improved performance against the spread a little and http://www.falconsfootballauthentics.com/matt-ryan-jersey-authentic , more importantly, decreased absolute error (the difference between projections and reality) quite a bit. I wouldn’t have made the move if it didn’t appear to improve performance. The free agency narrative right now is all about Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, which is no surprise. After last year’s snooze of a winter let’s be thankful we have those two guys to follow and speculate about. While every team should be in on them for sure, there are also a number of other free agent options it would be smart for teams to pay what they deserve in order to take their contending chances to the next level. If last year was about miserly front offices preparing for this year’s free agent class, this year better be about teams capitalizing on the wealth of opportunity in this class and actually spending money to get better. Here are five teams who have no excuse not to throw some cash around and level up in 2019. White Sox Thanks to a leaked photo of Harper’s name and number on the screen at the United Center this week, we know that at the very least they’re going after the top free agent available. And if they’re pitching Harper, then they’re definitely okay with spending money. There’s also rumors they’re in on Machado, but no leaked photos have backed that one up so certainly as their attachment to Harper. So ... spend the money! If they don’t get Harper or Machado and don’t do anything big otherwise, what a shame that will be. They’re in the AL Central for goodness sake, where the Indians are actively punting on trying before we’ve even hit the new year. The door is wide, wide open. Reports have already linked the Sox to J.A. Happ, Patrick Corbin, and Nelson Cruz. All would be fits for the White Sox and all would be reasonable investments that still give them wiggle room to make deadline moves if needed and stay far under the luxury tax. With a 2018 payroll of $71,217,000 if the words “tax threshold” come out of anyone’s mouth in that organization they should be banished. The AL Central is the easiest division in which to make a turnaround if any of those teams actually put an effort in. The White Sox would be one of the most satisfactory teams to do that. Padres The Padres weren’t shy in free agency last year, picking up Eric Hosmer for 8 years and $144 million. They also acquired Freddy Galvis and Chase Headley via trade. As we now know, that did not work out for them. In the least. They finished last in the division, 25 1鈦? games back, and Hosmer had a just okay season offensively (18 HR, 69 RBI) which anyone watching could probably have predicted because it’s Hosmer and it’s the Padres and that’s just their luck. No one on the team hit more than 26 home runs, thank you to Hunter Renfroe. Even with a mix of bad breaks and lack of production the Padres aren’t sitting in too big a ditch to dig out of. Hosmer wasn’t a disastrous move, he still produced and we know he can do more than that even if only incrementally. Andy Green is ably steering the ship, and there are options for them to slash that 4.40 team ERA (a 4.72 ERA for their starters). Make the big move for Patrick Corbin, Dallas Keuchel is still only entering his age 31 season and is coming off a 3.74 ERA, 2.64 SO/BB rate year where he won a Gold Glove, or Nathan Eovaldi could be picked up if the Red Sox don’t bring him back. He’s a (deserved) folk hero now and is still only 28 years old. There are a number of paths the Padres could take but not spending money is not one of them. Especially when they’re tantalizingly close to having Fernando Tatis, Jr. in the majors and should have a great foundation ready for whenever he arrives.Reds The Reds thought 2018 was going to be their bounce-back year and in case you missed all of this season that extremely was not the case. They finished last in the NL Central with a .414 win percentage, and not even the excitement of Scooter Gennett and Joey Votto’s usual “charm” could save this season for them. But they’re not that far off! They have those pieces Youth De'Vondre Campbell Jersey , and their biggest need is pitching — both starting and relieving. The great news for them is that this is a wonderful offseason to need pitching. There are plenty of options, and not all of them can go to the Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs, and so on. If they’re willing to spend they should be able to land at least two starters — maybe a top guy and a mid-tier option — and a solid reliever. If they add a bat and hope their injury luck isn’t nearly as bad as it was this year then maybe 2019 will actually, for real be a comeback season. It’s not like their division is insurmountable.Ranking the 50 best MLB free agents for the 2018-2019 offseasonThe Yankees are pretending they won’t make big free agency moves and it’s hilarious3 possible motivations behind the Nationals’ 10-year, $300 million offer to Bryce HarperYes, bad teams should sign Bryce Harper and Manny MachadoNationals They are obviously not a true rebuild candidate even if Bryce Harper doesn’t come back. Harper probably isn’t coming back, so that puts them in the position of needing to spend money in free agency now to keep this from being a complete burn-down this season. They have three more seasons of Max Scherzer, five more seasons of Stephen Strasburg (which, thanks to the $140 million they still owe him and his injury issues, will either be a surprise blessing or the curse to own all curses), two more of a sometimes-healthy Ryan Zimmerman, four of Trea Turner, and Juan Soto coming into his own. That’s a lot of decent pieces, and money, to just leave by the wayside if they give up without Harper on the roster. And you’re not trading that Strasburg contract. So once they know Harper’s out, if that’s how this goes, they should make sure to pick up a bat or two and at least another starter and reliever if they can. They’ve started this already with the Trevor Rosenthal pickup, probably as a signal to Harper that they’re not standing pat, but they shouldn’t leave things as is either way. There might be a time to come when it makes sense to officially give the division to the Phillies or Braves and torch everything, but not yet.MarinersThey would be in great position to make another run at the division title with some smart free agency pickups, if they wanted to do that. But they clearly don’t want to do that so have fun with the rebuild, y’all!
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